Two years after the .com meltdown, wreckage continues
to pile up on the information superhighway. Companies that set out to
construct and manage the 21st century Internet Exodus Communications,
Global Crossing, 360Networks, and Winstar now languish in Chapter
11. In all, network builders plowed some $30 billion into laying 90
million miles of fiber-optic cable. But the vast majority of those tiny
glass strands lie dark, unused.
It turns out, in the end, that the New Economy turned
out to be not so new. For the cycle we have just seen in fiber-optics
overbuilding, excess capacity, ruinous competition, falling prices,
bankruptcy and consolidation is eerily familiar. Indeed, a remarkably
similar set of circumstances surrounded the introduction of the first
information superhighway: the telegraph.
Author Tom Standage aptly refers to the telegraph as
the Victorian Internet. Just as was the case with todays
fiber-optic network operators, revenues were slow in coming to early
telegraph owners. In 1845, inventor Samuel Morse helped form the Magnetic
Telegraph Co., which linked New York with Washington. In its first six
months of operation, it tallied revenues of $413.44 against expenses
of $3284.12. Like Internet builders, early telegraph pioneers found
connecting the last mile to be a tough chore. By mid-1846,
you could send a message on the Magnetic Telegraph Cos line from
Washington to Jersey City, New Jersey. But the message had to cross
the Hudson that mythic last mile by boat. And throughout
the 1840s and 1850s, lines popped up, only to be taken down and sold
for scrap a few months later much the same way as Winstars
once well-capitalized networks were sold in bankruptcy court for pennies
on the dollar.
The natural follow-on to the periods of overbuilding
and failure is consolidation. Thats what is happening with the
fiber-optic network companies. And that is precisely what happened in
the maturing telegraph market. The New York & Mississippi Valley
Printing Telegraph Co., formed in 1851, quickly snapped up 11 lines
in five states in the Midwest. In 1856, it changed its name to Western
Union.
By the mid-1860s, acquisitive Western Union was the
undisputed master of the telegraph, which, with the advent of trans-Atlantic
cables and automatic telegraphy, had emerged as a crucial business tool.
In the late 1990s, Cisco Systems CEO John Chambers boasted that the
data on his desktop PC shed enormous light on the state of the New Economy.
Just so, Western Union president William Orton told Congress in 1870
that the telegraph is the nervous system of the commercial system.
If you will sit down with me at my office for twenty minutes, I will
show you what the condition of business is at any given time in any
locality in the United States.
Like the early telegraph companies, todays fiber-optic
network companies may have failed as investments. But both groups of
entrepreneurs succeeded in laying down a highly useful infrastructure.
By the 1870s, a farmer in a small town in Iowa could send a message
to a distant relative in New York by using the telegraph. Today, a farmer
in a small town Iowa can send a message to a distant relative in New
York by using the Internet.
Traffic may travel on the information superhighway
at the speed of light. The fundamentals of investing in information
infrastructures change at a somewhat slower pace.
Daniel Gross is editor of Sternbusiness.