uch
has been made in recent years of the notion of business as war. In
the late 1990s, executives and management gurus took to quoting from
Sun Tzus The Art of War. The business press joined in,
with headlines about mortal combat in the e-commerce sector, death-spiral
financing, and trench warfare in investment banking.
In light of the events of September 11, a day on which
many people engaged in utterly peaceful business became victims of
a new and horrible form of warfare, the metaphors seem remarkably
less apt.
Nonetheless, we are reminded that studying past conflicts
can help present-day executives improve their management. In their
article (p. 6) Zur Shapira and Joseph Lampel argue that lessons learned
from the debacle of Pearl Harbor in 1941 can inform the way managers
detect or prepare for sneak attacks. After all, they note, strategic
surprises can occur in business as well. The best defense for
companies and for nations as well is not necessarily
a massive physical show of strength or the rollout of a conspicuous
deterrent threat. Instead, the authors convincingly argue, it lies
in using and processing information about threats better and more
intelligently.
This article aptly sets the tone for this issue of
Sternbusiness, which focuses on the role, importance, and use of information
in all its forms in complex management challenges. The
focus couldnt be more timely.
For in the current war on terrorism a remarkably
complex global operation bits and bytes of information are
as crucial as horses and crossbows were to combatants in the Middle
Ages. Consider the role of money. Today, cold hard cash has essentially
been transformed into data it pulses through global networks
in bits of binary code, just as photographs and intelligence analayses
do. As seen, this flow can help undermine security. Just as
the terrorists took advantage of our relatively open and porous educational,
aviation, and immigration systems to plan and execute their attacks,
they also likely took advantage of our financial systems, write
Ingo Walter and Marti Subrahmanyam. (p. 14) They argue that as part
of the war on terrorism, governments must use financial intelligence
to shut down the secret flows of terrorist-abetting capital.
The events of September 11 have also altered the dynamic
between government and the private sector, with industries ranging
from hotels to insurance asking for federal help. Nowhere has the
interaction been more intense than in the battered airline industry.
Larry White offers some intriguing suggestions on how airlines can
improve customer relations in this time of crisis and perhaps coax
people back to the air (p. 18). The answer lies in the innovative
use of frequent flier miles.
In wartime, national resources are the key to a successful
effort. Heroic U.S. industrial production in World War II helped set
the stage for victory. In this environment, however, information can
be a crucial resource for governments and for businesses. Consider
the very term data-mining. It intimates that for companies, information
has become as important as coal, gold, or oil.
Tapping into rich veins of data doesnt lead simply
to profits or business advantage, it can also lead to enhanced understanding
of recent events. In their article (p. 20), Eli Ofek and Matthew Richardson
suggest a comprehensive and compelling argument as to why the .com
bubble of the late 1990s formed, and why it burst. Contrary to the
prevalent view, which lays the blame squarely at the feet of malignant
underwriters, hype-prone analysts and failed .coms, Ofek and Richardson
conclude that optimistic investors crowded pessimistic investors out
of the stocks, leading prices to rise far above fundamental values.
When lock-up agreements expired, a crowd of less optimistic sellers
flooded into the market, altering the dynamics of a frenzied market.
Without an influx of optimistic new capital to snap up the new
supply, the Internet stocks suffered a decline that quickly turned
into a rout, they conclude.
Just because the .com investing bubble has burst doesnt
mean that information technologys influence on business is over.
Far from it. Now were in E-commerce II, in which established
players are using the lessons learned from the first movers to transform
their businesses. said Kenneth Laudon, in an interview that
hits on themes from his recently published textbook on e-commerce.
(p. 32) Regardless of the vicissitudes of the NASDAQ, Laudon notes,
companies will continue to use information technology to redesign
their businesses, their markets, and their relationships to consumers.
The fact that information has, in many ways, replaced
physical assets as the driver of value, is a theme that Baruch Lev
has been developing for years. An expert on the role of intangibles
assets you can see, but cant necessarily touch, such
as patents, brands, and organizational structures Lev has laid
out his theories in a new book, Intangibles: Management, Measurement,
and Reporting, which we are proud to excerpt here (p. 26). Lev
argues compellingly that the increasing prominence and value of such
information-based assets should lead investors, managers, and anlaysts
to re-examine the way we account for corporate assets and liabilities.
Of course, even in the information age, old-fashioned
commodities are still important cogs of the economy. Cotton is one
of the oldest, and most historically important to the United States.
Throughout the 1950s and 1960s it lost market share to foreign competition
and the relentless growth of synthetic fabrics. But in the 1970s and
1980s, as George David Smith and Timothy Curtis Jacobson show (p.
36), cotton growers managed to turn their fortunes around. How? By
relying on up-to-date information-based strategies. A brilliantly
conceived and executed marketing and advertising campaign aimed at
consumers changed the way people thought about cotton, and research
and development helped make the snowy white stuff more appealing to
industry. At the dawn of the 21st century, this crucial industry relies
as much on favorable weather as it does on the savvy use of information.
Staying competitive, the authors note, requires investment in
technology, management, and marketing, and a broad-based knowledge
of world affairs, from the weather in Australia to political conditions
in Pakistan, from whats fashionable in Paris to whats
happening in the worlds genetic and biochemical laboratories.
With the decline of the NASDAQ and a slowdown in the
growth of technology spending, many pundits have been quick to proclaim
that the much ballyhooed information age was coming to an end. For
investors soured on the promise of upstart companies, that may be
true. But as the wide array of articles in this issue suggest, for
executives and managers in industries ranging from cotton to banking,
the information age is just beginning.
Daniel Gross is editor of STERNbusiness.