In the United States, finance has become something
of a national obsession. The Wall Street Journal sells more
copies than The New York Times. And when the markets are open,
CNBC routinely draws more viewers than CNN. As investors have
flooded into the markets some 83 million Americans are
believed to own stock today the level of popular attention
devoted to corporate finance and personal finance has intensified.
With every passing day, more and more of our citizens are attuned
to the latest change in the Federal Funds rate, the fate of
the 30-year bond, and the debate over whether to invest Social
Security funds in equities.
To
a large degree then, this is an era in which finance really
matters and not just to bankers and traders in lower
Manhattan. It has become democratized, relevant, and pervasive.
And many of the trends and forces that have roiled the frequently
topsy-turvy world of finance are somewhat bewildering.
One
of the most distinguishing features of the personal finance
revolution has been the growing ability of individuals to trade
stocks and buy mutual funds online. Chris Stefanadis traces
the emergence of the online discount brokerage industry and
describes how they helped improve conditions for consumers (p.
18). The next step in the revolution: The creation of
an online financial supermarket that offers a broad array of
services. Of course, thats a tactic many off-line
firms have tried over the years; few have succeeded.
When
they trade stocks, online investors frequently rely on the news
and analysis they find on websites like TheStreet.com, which
was co-founded by former hedge fund manager James Cramer. As
part of our chief executive lecture series, the voluble
and occasionally volatile Cramer engaged students and
faculty in a wide-ranging conversation about the business of
picking stocks, and about the business of running an online
magazine devoted to the business of picking stocks (p. 2).
Aside
from logging on to TheStreet.com and its rivals, Internet investors
have flocked to bulletin boards and chat rooms, where they can
interact and swap ideas with other investors. By focusing on
one site RagingBull.com and systematically analyzing
the action, Robert Tumarkin draws some interesting conclusions
about the relationship between the volume and content of online
posts about certain stocks and their trading volume and performance
(p. 42).
These
days, following stocks can be a 24-hour-a-day preoccupation,
especially as barriers to trading stocks on foreign exchanges
continue to fall. But in the last decade, investors large and
small have been stung by a series of crises in emerging markets
such as Mexico, Russia, and those in Asia. Stockholders were
frequently frustrated to find that the stocks they had carefully
chosen were pulled down by the activity in the broader market.
In fact, as Professors Randall Morck and Bernard Yeung argue,
stocks in emerging markets tend to exhibit greater price synchronicity
than those in developed markets they tend to move in
the same direction (p. 32). By deploying some rather sophisticated
techniques, the authors have managed to offer some compelling
reasons as to why that may be.
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In
the 1980s, high-yield bonds also known as junk bonds
became one of the most exciting and controversial tools
in the world of corporate finance. Entrepreneurs relied on high-yield
bonds to finance rapid growth, and leveraged buy-out artists
and corporate raiders used them to take over companies. But
in the early 1990s, as junk-bond default rates soared, returns
declined and the bonds fell out of favor. In the late 1990s,
high-yield bonds similarly rode the crest of exuberant capital
markets and then crashed to earth as excesses entered the system.
Professor Edward Altman, a veteran high-yield market analyst,
provides some valuable perspective on the rollercoaster ride
of the high-yield market. Although storm clouds hang over
todays high-yield market, the current situation differs
in a number of important respects from a decade ago, he
notes (p. 10). And just as the years after the crisis in the
early 1990s were characterized by outsized returns, he suggests
that returns will be substantial after the peak of defaults,
and perhaps even before the peak whenever it occurs.
In
2000, several telecommunications companies defaulted on their
high-yield debt. Of course, telecommunications is an industry
that has long depended on engineering for advances. But in recent
years, financial engineering has become an equally important
discipline for these companies, which must navigate the shifting
shoals of regulation and competition. Professor Nicholas Economides
provides an excellent primer on why once-stolid companies such
as AT&T have been merging, spinning off units, and breaking
up at a dizzying pace (p. 38). The unanticipated outcome? The
remonopolization of telecommunications.
In
his years as a partner at Goldman Sachs, Professor Roy Smith
ran across his share of financial moguls. And his highly readable
new book, The Wealth Creators: The Rise of Todays New
Rich and Super-Rich, contains some valuable insights as to what
separates run-of-the-mill business owners from big shots. In
his article, which is adapted from The Wealth Creators, Smith
reaches the (perhaps) surprising conclusion that its not
just a matter of money and financial expertise.
To
be sure, numbers dont lie. But numbers certainly leave
room for debate and interpretation. Two analysts can look at
the same security, after all, and one can declare it undervalued
while the other declares it overvalued. And that makes finance
such a rich, complex, and intriguing area of study.
This
constant tension, the way that financial questions invite interpretation
and foster innovative analysis, provides the animating spirit
of this issue. Whether youre a raging bull or a cautious
bear, the articles that follow will certainly challenge your
preconceptions and influence the way you think about finance.
Daniel
Gross is editor of Sternbusiness.