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"History
is bunk" Henry Ford
In general, most marketing experts have agreed with Fords
conclusion. While some researchers have advocated using historical
or longitudinal approaches to study marketing phenomena, others
have dismissed the vast field of history as inherently subjective
and hopelessly unscientific.
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believe
the historical method is well suited to address strategic issues
in marketing. After all, its an endeavor in which relationships
must be examined over a long period. And I have found it to be of
particular use in asking the question: How stable are the market
shares of leading brands over prolonged periods?
Research has found evidence of strong and stable product-preference
patterns due to product differentiation advantages of established
brands. Gregory Carpenter and Kent Nakamoto in 1989 reported that
leading brands outsell their rivals for years and sometimes
decades. And Philip Kotler in 1997 found that 19 out
of 25 companies who were market leaders in 1923 were still the market
leaders in 1983, sixty years later.
Based on these assertions, maintaining market leadership must be
surprisingly common since over 75 percent of leaders maintained
their leadership for at least 60 years. More recently, the concept
of stable or stationary market shares has been found to be an empirical
generalization. Based on a database of over 400 prior analyses,
Marnik DeKimpe and Dominique Hanssens in 1995 concluded that even
when looking at prolonged periods of time, market shares tend to
be in a long-run equilibrium position.
But theres a problem with these assertions. The first two
cited above seem to be drawn from a 1983 Advertising Age
study. The Advertising Age study claims to show that long-term
success is due to well-managed promotions and contemporary graphic
presentations. Makes sense. But my investigation into the data used
in that study leads me to quite a different conclusion.
he Advertising
Age results relied on a book published in 1923 by two New York
University professors, George Burton Hotchkiss and Richard B. Franken,
entitled The Leadership of Advertised Brands. A fresh look
at the book reveals that the commonly referenced data that 19
out of 25 market leaders maintained their leadership for at
least 60 years is based on a biased sample of companies. The original
1923 study covered 100 categories, not 25. Advertising Age
plainly chose the sample of 25 selectively to demonstrate long-term
leadership.
Given that this conclusion is misleading, the questions remain:
What is the proper estimate of long-term leadership? And how stable
are the market shares of leading brands over prolonged periods?
By comparing the leading brands in 1923 with the leading brands
today in all 100 categories, I have determined that the actual percentage
of former leaders that have maintained leadership is actually far
lower. In addition, Ive been able to consider the market share
stability of leading brands over this period.
First, however, we have to go back to the original data. The NYU
professors collected data in 1920 and 1921 from 512 males and 512
females at a representative sample of U.S. colleges. Most were in
the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic states, with some colleges from the
South, Midwest, and West included as well. Subjects were given a
list of 100 categories and asked to write the brand or manufacturer
they first thought of for each category. The analysis of these data
considers all brands mentioned by at least 50 people. The only exceptions
are four categories where the leading brand is included even though
it was mentioned by fewer than 50 people.
he data
collected in 1997 are the leading brands in each category based
on market share. Data sources used to compile this include Gales
Market Share Reporter, Simmons Study of Media and Markets,
trade publications, and multiple sources referenced in the Business
Periodicals Index, Readers Guide to Periodical Literature
and Lexis-Nexis. Reports of market share are primarily based on
1996 sales.
After investigating these 100 categories, five no longer seem relevant
for todays consumers. Independent public reports of market
share were available for 85 percent of the remaining categories.
Market shares for the remaining categories are estimated based on
(i) company reports and (ii) visits to multiple stores in New York
City and Los Angeles.
Table 1 presents a sample of the 100 categories and the leading
brands in 1923 and 1997. These 15 categories are grouped according
to a classification from the 1923 study. The numbers in parentheses
beside the 1923 leaders are the number of respondents mentioning
that brand.
Sample
of Leading Brands in 1923 and 1997
Product
Category |
1923
Leaders |
1997
Leaders |
Single
Dominant Brand in 1923 (well-known categories)
Cleanser |
Old
Dutch (744) |
Comet,
Soft Scrub, Ajax |
Chewing
Gum |
Wrigley
(664), Adams (97) |
Wrigley's,
Bubble Yum, Bubbilicious |
Motorcycles |
Indian
(564), Harley-Davidson (156) |
Harley-Davidson,
Honda, Kawasaki |
Single Dominant Brand in 1923 (less well-known categories)
5-Cent
Mint Candies |
Life-Savers
(436) |
Breath-Savers,
Tic Tac, Certs |
Peanut
Butter |
Beech-Nut
(435), Heinz (140) |
Jif,
Skippy, Peter Pan |
Razors |
Gillette
(396), Gem (87), Ever Ready (50) |
Gillete,
Bic, Schick |
Single Leading Brand in 1923
Soft
Drinks |
Coca-Cola
(353), Cliquot Club (85), Bevo (75), Hires (51) |
Coca-Cola,
Pepsi, Dr.Pepper/Cadbury |
Coffee |
Arbuckle's
Yuban (224), White House (100), Hotel Astor (56), George
Washington (55) |
Folger's,
Maxwell House, Hills Bros. |
Laundry
Soap |
Fels
Naptha (192), Octagon (93), Kirkman (83), Ivory (82),
Babbitts (51), Crystal White (51) |
Tide,
Cheer, Wisk |
Brands
Sharing Leadership in 1923
Typewriters |
Underwood
(394), Remington (265), Oliver (100), Corona (53) |
Smith
Corona, Brother, Lexmark |
Cigarettes |
Camel
(256), Fatima (156), Pall Mall (90), Murad (72), Lucky
Strike (64) |
Marlboro,
Winston, Newport |
Hosiery |
Holeproof
(180), Onyx (156), Phoenix (66), Luxite (60) |
L'Eggs,
Hanes, No Nonsense |
Leading
Brands in 1923 do not have Pronounced Leadership
Shoes |
Douglas
(146), Walkover (120), Hanan (52) |
Nike,
Reebok |
Candy |
Huyler's
(144), Loft (94), Page & Shaw (91), Whitman (89) |
Hershey,
M&M/Mars, Nestle |
Jelly
or Jam |
Heinz
(62) |
Smucker's,
Welch's, Kraft
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Table 2 compares marketings current knowledge (which
is based on a biased sample) with the new findings based on the
full sample of categories.
Table
2
|
Long-Term Success rate of 1923 Market Leaders
Later
Market Share Rank
|
Current
Knowledge
(based on biased 1983 sample)
|
New
Findings
(based on complete 1997 sample)
|
Number
1 |
76%
|
23%
|
Number
2 |
16%
|
8%
|
Number
3 |
4%
|
9%
|
Top
5 |
4%
|
9%
|
Top
10 |
0%
|
7%
|
Below
10 |
0%
|
16%
|
Failed |
0%
|
28%
|
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The difference in the findings is striking. It turns out leading
brands maintain their leadership at a rate less than one-third
of that currently believed! Table 3 presents a broader
set of findings based on these data. Since there may be differences
between durables and non-durables (durables last for many uses
while non-durables do not), Tables 4 and 5 present findings
for these two classes of goods.
Table
3
|
Comparison of Starting and Ending
Market Share Positions
Ending (1997) Starting (1923)
|
Sample
Size
|
No.
1
|
No.
2
|
No.
3
|
Top
5
|
Top
10
|
>10
|
Failed
|
Number
1 Brand
|
97
|
23%
|
8%
|
9%
|
8%
|
7%
|
16%
|
28%
|
Group
1
|
19
|
42%
|
5%
|
11%
|
5%
|
5%
|
5%
|
26%
|
Group
2
|
11
|
18%
|
18%
|
18%
|
9%
|
9%
|
0%
|
27%
|
Group
3
|
25
|
24%
|
8%
|
12%
|
12%
|
8%
|
20%
|
16%
|
Group
4
|
15
|
13%
|
7%
|
7%
|
20%
|
13%
|
20%
|
20%
|
Group
5
|
27
|
15%
|
7%
|
4%
|
0%
|
4%
|
26%
|
44%
|
Number
2 Brand
|
70
|
11%
|
9%
|
3%
|
4%
|
9%
|
26%
|
39%
|
Number
3 Brand
|
43
|
5%
|
7%
|
2%
|
5%
|
9%
|
14%
|
58%
|
Number
4 Brand
|
26
|
4%
|
4%
|
4%
|
4%
|
8%
|
42%
|
35%
|
Number
5 Brand
|
12
|
0%
|
0%
|
25%
|
0%
|
17%
|
42%
|
17%
|
Number
6 Brand
|
5
|
0%
|
0%
|
0%
|
0%
|
20%
|
20%
|
60%
|
Number
7 Brand
|
1
|
0%
|
0%
|
0%
|
0%
|
0%
|
0%
|
100%
|
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Table
4
|
Comparison of Starting and Ending
Market Share Positions for Durable Goods
Ending (1997) Starting (1923)
|
Sample
Size
|
No.
1
|
No.
2
|
No.
3
|
Top
5
|
Top
10
|
>10
|
Failed
|
Number
1 Brand
|
45
|
16%
|
4%
|
13%
|
7%
|
2%
|
16%
|
42%
|
Number
2 Brand
|
28
|
11%
|
7%
|
0%
|
0%
|
11%
|
25%
|
46%
|
Number
3 Brand
|
17
|
6%
|
6%
|
0%
|
6%
|
6%
|
6%
|
71%
|
Number
4 Brand
|
8
|
13%
|
0%
|
13%
|
13%
|
13%
|
38%
|
13%
|
Number
5 Brand
|
4
|
0%
|
0%
|
50%
|
0%
|
25%
|
0%
|
25%
|
Number
6 Brand
|
2
|
0%
|
0%
|
0%
|
0%
|
0%
|
0%
|
100%
|
Number
7 Brand
|
1
|
0%
|
0%
|
0%
|
0%
|
0%
|
0%
|
100%
|
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Table
5
|
Comparison of Starting and Ending
Market Share Positions for Non-durable Goods
Ending (1997) Starting (1923)
|
Sample
Size
|
No.
1
|
No.
2
|
No.
3
|
Top
5
|
Top
10
|
>10
|
Failed
|
Number
1 Brand
|
51
|
29%
|
10%
|
6%
|
10%
|
12%
|
18%
|
16%
|
Number
2 Brand
|
41
|
10%
|
10%
|
5%
|
7%
|
7%
|
27%
|
34%
|
Number
3 Brand
|
25
|
4%
|
8%
|
4%
|
0%
|
12%
|
20%
|
52%
|
Number
4 Brand
|
17
|
0%
|
6%
|
0%
|
0%
|
6%
|
47%
|
41%
|
Number
5 Brand
|
7
|
0%
|
0%
|
14%
|
0%
|
0%
|
71%
|
14%
|
Number
6 Brand
|
2
|
0%
|
0%
|
0%
|
|
|
|
|
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The data can be mined for other important conclusions. It turns
out, for example, that more of the leading brands in 1923 failed
than remained leaders. In addition, more of the top three brands
in 1923 failed than remained among the top five brands. All of
which leads us to believe that market shares over this prolonged
period are simply not stable, and, as a rule, decrease over time.
However, the long-term success or failure of brands is proportional
to the strength or weakness of their starting positions.
What kinds of brands last? As a rule, for durable goods, the rate
of maintaining leadership is lower than the overall average and
the rate of failure is higher than the overall average. For non-durable
goods, the rate of maintaining leadership is higher than the overall
average and the rate of failure is lower. None of the members
of the clothing sub-group maintained leadership and 67 percent
of the 1923 leaders failed. Meanwhile, in the food and beverage
sub-group, 39 percent of the 1923 brands maintained leadership
and only 21 percent of former leaders failed. Brands that consumers
eat and drink constitute brands that are plainly built to last.
The findings from this analysis show that the rate of long-term
leadership is much lower than currently believed. In addition,
these findings raise doubts about the currently accepted empirical
generalization that market shares are stable over prolonged periods.
While market shares may be stable over shorter periods, they are
clearly not stable in these categories over the period considered.
Many historians believe that a reasonable outcome of historically
generated knowledge is being able to manage better in similar
situations. Everybody knows Santayanas line about those
who dont remember the past being condemned to relive it.
The same holds true for brand managers. Understanding how and
why brands succeed and fail over time can help executives and
marketers do their jobs better. There may be areas of inquiry
where history, indeed, remains bunk. When studying the Internet
and e-commerce, for example, we have precious few antecedents
to guide our understanding of the current situation. Therefore,
the tools and techniques of history can act like torches simultaneously
illuminating the path weve already taken and the road ahead.
To understand where we are today and where we may be tomorrow
it can never hurt to know where we were yesterday, or in
1923.


n
1923, Wrigleys had become the established brand leader
through extensive advertising. Its main competitor, American
Chicle also known as the chewing gum trust
tended to maximize profits by skimping on marketing. Since
1923, Wrigleys continued success has been primarily
based on three factors: maintaining and building strong
brands, focusing on a single product, and being in a category
that simply has not changed much.
In 1927, Wrigleys was an early sponsor of national
radio. By some reports, the firm was the largest, single-product
national advertiser in the 1930s. Wrigleys also showed
a great commitment to its brands throughout World War II.
Due to scarce supplies of the ingredients crucial to its
normal quality gum, Wrigleys pulled its traditional
brands and introduced another brand. At the same time, Wrigley
continued to advertise traditional brands with the slogan
Remember this Wrapper. After the war, sales
soon surpassed the pre-war level.
More recently, Wrigley has continued to manage its brand
equity carefully. When sugarless gum and bubble gum became
popular in the 1970s, Wrigley did not reflexively extend
its brand. Several years after the sugarless gum market
had taken off, it introduced a product, but under the same
brand it had used for the World War II-era sub par gum.
It wasnt until 1984 with extra
that Wrigley committed to the sugarless gum market.
Meanwhile, in bubble gum, Wrigley used a subsidiary to introduce
Hubba Bubba.
The second factor in Wrigleys long-term dominance
is the firms unrelenting focus on chewing gum. Even
though the company owned the Chicago Cubs baseball team
for many years, the team was a sideline to the firms
main business. For over 100 years, Wrigley has been run
by three generations of Wrigleys. Collectively, the family
still owns over 40 percent of the company.
In the 1960s, the family chose not to expand into other
businesses and referred to diversification as a dirty word.
Management rejected joining a conglomerate, American Home
Products, even though Warner-Lambert and Squibb had acquired
its major competitors. As a single-product company, Wrigley
has continued to grow and prosper, domestically and internationally.
Over the last 10 years, dollar sales have grown nearly 10
percent per year in what is considered a mature category.
The third factor contributing to Wrigleys long-term
dominance is the fact that chewing gum has changed very
little over the years. In some ways, the market has simplified.
In the 1920s, at least 25 flavors of chewing gum were available.
Today, only mint-flavored gums dominate sales. These minimal
changes have made later entry very difficult. In fact, Beech-Nut
(now part of Nabisco) was the last major chewing gum company
to enter, way back in 1911. Although chewing gum has changed
relatively little, Wrigley maintains a serious R&D effort
to improve its products and packaging.
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nderwood
was the leading typewriter brand in 1923. Over the next
three decades, Underwood was profitable. But instead of
innovating, Underwood sought to collude with its competitors.
According to a 1939 federal antitrust indictment, the four
largest typewriter manufacturers, who together set prices
and cornered 90 percent of the market, met to coordinate
activities as early as 1930. One year after the indictment,
Underwood and the other three manufacturers agreed to a
consent degree that prohibited their monopolistic practices.
During World War II, many companies developed technology
that would be useful after the war. But not Underwood. The
companys profitability from 1945 to 1955 was due to
pent-up, post-war demand for typewriters, a growing economy,
and sales from the Korean War effort. During this period,
Underwood continued to pay high dividends rather than invest
more in product development and manufacturing. While other
companies invested heavily in computer technology, Underwood
acquired only tiny Electronic Computer Corporation of Brooklyn
in 1952.
In 1956, several factors exposed Underwoods weaknesses.
Lower-priced foreign competitors share of manual typewriters
began a five-year increase from 15 percent to 40 percent.
Outdated manufacturing facilities became too costly, and
electric typewriters became more competitive, eventually
surpassing sales of manual typewriters in the early 1960s.
These conditions led to increasingly large losses and failed
efforts at new strategic directions. Underwood spent $12
million to diversify into computers, but gave up after 18
months, lacking the necessary technical expertise.
After a few more unprofitable years, Underwood was acquired
by Olivetti. While Olivettis U.S. subsidiary returned
to profitability from the mid-1960s until 1970, it lost
money throughout the 1970s and early 1980s. The Underwood
name was phased out, and today, Olivetti is only a very
small part of a relatively unimportant category.
Underwoods lack of innovation stands in stark contrast
with IBM. IBM bought Electromatic Typewriter in 1933 and
introduced the first successful electric typewriter in 1935.
In 1941, IBM introduced proportional letter spacing. In
1961, Big Blue introduced the Selectric typewriter with
the golf-ball typing element. In 1964, the company
introduced an automatic typewriter that stored information
on magnetic tape. These advances and others enabled IBM
to dominate electric typewriters through the late 1970s.
More important than succeeding in typewriters, IBM leveraged
its strong position to become the dominant firm in computers.
During World War II, IBM developed the Mark I computing
calculator. The company sold its first computer to the government
research facility at Los Alamos, New Mexico in 1953 and
soon afterwards captured market leadership. IBMs leadership
in important segments of the computer industry continues
today.
Underwoods demise demonstrates the importance of continuous
innovation. At least up until the mid-1930s, Underwood was
well positioned to be the dominant firm in office automation.
Its revenues were about equal to IBMs in 1937. But
by 1957, IBMs revenues were about 15 times those of
Underwood!
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More information can be found here.
Peter Golder is associate professor of marketing
at Stern. This article is adapted from research was published
in the May 2000 issue of Journal of Marketing Research.
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