A Letter from the Dean
Stern Chief Executive Series Interviews
Location, Location, Location
The Rise of Silicon Alley
Internet Business Models
The Brave New World of Telework
Forecasting Online Shopping
The Ultimate Capitalist Tool, Language
What History Teaches Us about the Endurance of Brands
Supermarket Checkout Roulette
Banking on International Financial Stability
Endpaper

 

"History is bunk" – Henry Ford

In general, most marketing experts have agreed with Ford’s conclusion. While some researchers have advocated using historical or longitudinal approaches to study marketing phenomena, others have dismissed the vast field of history as inherently subjective and hopelessly unscientific.


 

believe the historical method is well suited to address strategic issues in marketing. After all, it’s an endeavor in which relationships must be examined over a long period. And I have found it to be of particular use in asking the question: How stable are the market shares of leading brands over prolonged periods?

Research has found evidence of strong and stable product-preference patterns due to product differentiation advantages of established brands. Gregory Carpenter and Kent Nakamoto in 1989 reported that “leading brands outsell their rivals for years and sometimes decades.” And Philip Kotler in 1997 found that “19 out of 25 companies who were market leaders in 1923 were still the market leaders in 1983, sixty years later.”

Based on these assertions, maintaining market leadership must be surprisingly common since over 75 percent of leaders maintained their leadership for at least 60 years. More recently, the concept of stable or stationary market shares has been found to be an empirical generalization. Based on a database of over 400 prior analyses, Marnik DeKimpe and Dominique Hanssens in 1995 concluded that “even when looking at prolonged periods of time, market shares tend to be in a long-run equilibrium position.”

But there’s a problem with these assertions. The first two cited above seem to be drawn from a 1983 Advertising Age study. The Advertising Age study claims to show that long-term success is due to well-managed promotions and contemporary graphic presentations. Makes sense. But my investigation into the data used in that study leads me to quite a different conclusion.

he Advertising Age results relied on a book published in 1923 by two New York University professors, George Burton Hotchkiss and Richard B. Franken, entitled The Leadership of Advertised Brands. A fresh look at the book reveals that the commonly referenced data that “19 out of 25” market leaders maintained their leadership for at least 60 years is based on a biased sample of companies. The original 1923 study covered 100 categories, not 25. Advertising Age plainly chose the sample of 25 selectively to demonstrate long-term leadership.

Given that this conclusion is misleading, the questions remain: What is the proper estimate of long-term leadership? And how stable are the market shares of leading brands over prolonged periods?

By comparing the leading brands in 1923 with the leading brands today in all 100 categories, I have determined that the actual percentage of former leaders that have maintained leadership is actually far lower. In addition, I’ve been able to consider the market share stability of leading brands over this period.

First, however, we have to go back to the original data. The NYU professors collected data in 1920 and 1921 from 512 males and 512 females at a representative sample of U.S. colleges. Most were in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic states, with some colleges from the South, Midwest, and West included as well. Subjects were given a list of 100 categories and asked to write the brand or manufacturer they first thought of for each category. The analysis of these data considers all brands mentioned by at least 50 people. The only exceptions are four categories where the leading brand is included even though it was mentioned by fewer than 50 people.

he data collected in 1997 are the leading brands in each category based on market share. Data sources used to compile this include Gale’s Market Share Reporter, Simmon’s Study of Media and Markets, trade publications, and multiple sources referenced in the Business Periodicals Index, Readers’ Guide to Periodical Literature and Lexis-Nexis. Reports of market share are primarily based on 1996 sales.

After investigating these 100 categories, five no longer seem relevant for today’s consumers. Independent public reports of market share were available for 85 percent of the remaining categories. Market shares for the remaining categories are estimated based on (i) company reports and (ii) visits to multiple stores in New York City and Los Angeles.

Table 1 presents a sample of the 100 categories and the leading brands in 1923 and 1997. These 15 categories are grouped according to a classification from the 1923 study. The numbers in parentheses beside the 1923 leaders are the number of respondents mentioning that brand.

Table 1

Sample of Leading Brands in 1923 and 1997

Product Category 1923 Leaders 1997 Leaders
Single Dominant Brand in 1923 (well-known categories)
Cleanser Old Dutch (744) Comet, Soft Scrub, Ajax
Chewing Gum Wrigley (664), Adams (97) Wrigley's, Bubble Yum, Bubbilicious
Motorcycles Indian (564), Harley-Davidson (156) Harley-Davidson, Honda, Kawasaki

Single Dominant Brand in 1923 (less well-known categories)

5-Cent Mint Candies Life-Savers (436) Breath-Savers, Tic Tac, Certs
Peanut Butter Beech-Nut (435), Heinz (140) Jif, Skippy, Peter Pan
Razors Gillette (396), Gem (87), Ever Ready (50) Gillete, Bic, Schick

Single Leading Brand in 1923

Soft Drinks Coca-Cola (353), Cliquot Club (85), Bevo (75), Hires (51) Coca-Cola, Pepsi, Dr.Pepper/Cadbury
Coffee Arbuckle's Yuban (224), White House (100), Hotel Astor (56), George Washington (55) Folger's, Maxwell House, Hills Bros.
Laundry Soap Fels Naptha (192), Octagon (93), Kirkman (83), Ivory (82), Babbitts (51), Crystal White (51) Tide, Cheer, Wisk

Brands Sharing Leadership in 1923
Typewriters Underwood (394), Remington (265), Oliver (100), Corona (53) Smith Corona, Brother, Lexmark
Cigarettes Camel (256), Fatima (156), Pall Mall (90), Murad (72), Lucky Strike (64) Marlboro, Winston, Newport
Hosiery Holeproof (180), Onyx (156), Phoenix (66), Luxite (60) L'Eggs, Hanes, No Nonsense

Leading Brands in 1923 do not have Pronounced Leadership
Shoes Douglas (146), Walkover (120), Hanan (52) Nike, Reebok
Candy Huyler's (144), Loft (94), Page & Shaw (91), Whitman (89) Hershey, M&M/Mars, Nestle
Jelly or Jam Heinz (62)

Smucker's, Welch's, Kraft



Table 2 compares marketing’s current knowledge (which is based on a biased sample) with the new findings based on the full sample of categories.

Table 2


Long-Term Success rate of 1923 Market Leaders

Later Market Share Rank

 

Current Knowledge
(based on biased 1983 sample)

New Findings
(based on complete 1997 sample)

Number 1
76%
23%
Number 2
16%
8%
Number 3
4%
9%
Top 5
4%
9%
Top 10
0%
7%
Below 10
0%
16%
Failed
0%
28%



The difference in the findings is striking. It turns out leading brands maintain their leadership at a rate less than one-third of that currently believed! Table 3 presents a broader set of findings based on these data. Since there may be differences between durables and non-durables (durables last for many uses while non-durables do not), Tables 4 and 5 present findings for these two classes of goods.

Table 3


Comparison of Starting and Ending Market Share Positions
Ending (1997) Starting (1923)

Sample Size
No. 1
No. 2
No. 3
Top 5
Top 10
>10
Failed
Number 1 Brand
97

23%

8%
9%
8%
7%
16%
28%
Group 1
19
42%
5%
11%
5%
5%
5%
26%
Group 2
11
18%
18%
18%
9%
9%
0%
27%
Group 3
25
24%
8%
12%
12%
8%
20%
16%
Group 4
15
13%
7%
7%
20%
13%
20%
20%
Group 5
27
15%
7%
4%
0%
4%
26%
44%
Number 2 Brand
70
11%
9%
3%
4%
9%
26%
39%
Number 3 Brand
43
5%
7%
2%
5%
9%
14%
58%
Number 4 Brand
26
4%
4%
4%
4%
8%
42%
35%
Number 5 Brand
12
0%
0%
25%
0%
17%
42%
17%
Number 6 Brand
5
0%
0%
0%
0%
20%
20%
60%
Number 7 Brand
1
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
100%

 

Table 4


Comparison of Starting and Ending Market Share Positions for Durable Goods
Ending (1997) Starting (1923)

Sample Size
No. 1
No. 2
No. 3
Top 5
Top 10
>10
Failed
Number 1 Brand
45

16%

4%
13%
7%
2%
16%
42%
Number 2 Brand
28
11%
7%
0%
0%
11%
25%
46%
Number 3 Brand
17
6%
6%
0%
6%
6%
6%
71%
Number 4 Brand
8
13%
0%
13%
13%
13%
38%
13%
Number 5 Brand
4
0%
0%
50%
0%
25%
0%
25%
Number 6 Brand
2
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
100%
Number 7 Brand
1
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
100%

 

Table 5


Comparison of Starting and Ending Market Share Positions for Non-durable Goods
Ending (1997) Starting (1923)

Sample Size
No. 1
No. 2
No. 3
Top 5
Top 10
>10
Failed
Number 1 Brand
51

29%

10%
6%
10%
12%
18%
16%
Number 2 Brand
41
10%
10%
5%
7%
7%
27%
34%
Number 3 Brand
25
4%
8%
4%
0%
12%
20%
52%
Number 4 Brand
17
0%
6%
0%
0%
6%
47%
41%
Number 5 Brand
7
0%
0%
14%
0%
0%
71%
14%
Number 6 Brand
2
0%
0%
0%


The data can be mined for other important conclusions. It turns out, for example, that more of the leading brands in 1923 failed than remained leaders. In addition, more of the top three brands in 1923 failed than remained among the top five brands. All of which leads us to believe that market shares over this prolonged period are simply not stable, and, as a rule, decrease over time. However, the long-term success or failure of brands is proportional to the strength or weakness of their starting positions.

What kinds of brands last? As a rule, for durable goods, the rate of maintaining leadership is lower than the overall average and the rate of failure is higher than the overall average. For non-durable goods, the rate of maintaining leadership is higher than the overall average and the rate of failure is lower. None of the members of the clothing sub-group maintained leadership and 67 percent of the 1923 leaders failed. Meanwhile, in the food and beverage sub-group, 39 percent of the 1923 brands maintained leadership and only 21 percent of former leaders failed. Brands that consumers eat and drink constitute brands that are plainly built to last.

The findings from this analysis show that the rate of long-term leadership is much lower than currently believed. In addition, these findings raise doubts about the currently accepted empirical generalization that market shares are stable over prolonged periods. While market shares may be stable over shorter periods, they are clearly not stable in these categories over the period considered.

Many historians believe that a reasonable outcome of historically generated knowledge is being able to manage better in similar situations. Everybody knows Santayana’s line about those who don’t remember the past being condemned to relive it. The same holds true for brand managers. Understanding how and why brands succeed and fail over time can help executives and marketers do their jobs better. There may be areas of inquiry where history, indeed, remains bunk. When studying the Internet and e-commerce, for example, we have precious few antecedents to guide our understanding of the current situation. Therefore, the tools and techniques of history can act like torches simultaneously illuminating the path we’ve already taken and the road ahead. To understand where we are today – and where we may be tomorrow – it can never hurt to know where we were yesterday, or in 1923.

 



n 1923, Wrigley’s had become the established brand leader through extensive advertising. Its main competitor, American Chicle – also known as the chewing gum trust – tended to maximize profits by skimping on marketing. Since 1923, Wrigley’s continued success has been primarily based on three factors: maintaining and building strong brands, focusing on a single product, and being in a category that simply has not changed much.

In 1927, Wrigley’s was an early sponsor of national radio. By some reports, the firm was the largest, single-product national advertiser in the 1930s. Wrigley’s also showed a great commitment to its brands throughout World War II. Due to scarce supplies of the ingredients crucial to its normal quality gum, Wrigley’s pulled its traditional brands and introduced another brand. At the same time, Wrigley continued to advertise traditional brands with the slogan “Remember this Wrapper.” After the war, sales soon surpassed the pre-war level.

More recently, Wrigley has continued to manage its brand equity carefully. When sugarless gum and bubble gum became popular in the 1970s, Wrigley did not reflexively extend its brand. Several years after the sugarless gum market had taken off, it introduced a product, but under the same brand it had used for the World War II-era sub par gum. It wasn’t until 1984 – with “extra” – that Wrigley committed to the sugarless gum market. Meanwhile, in bubble gum, Wrigley used a subsidiary to introduce Hubba Bubba.

The second factor in Wrigley’s long-term dominance is the firm’s unrelenting focus on chewing gum. Even though the company owned the Chicago Cubs baseball team for many years, the team was a sideline to the firm’s main business. For over 100 years, Wrigley has been run by three generations of Wrigleys. Collectively, the family still owns over 40 percent of the company.

In the 1960s, the family chose not to expand into other businesses and referred to diversification as a dirty word. Management rejected joining a conglomerate, American Home Products, even though Warner-Lambert and Squibb had acquired its major competitors. As a single-product company, Wrigley has continued to grow and prosper, domestically and internationally. Over the last 10 years, dollar sales have grown nearly 10 percent per year in what is considered a mature category.

The third factor contributing to Wrigley’s long-term dominance is the fact that chewing gum has changed very little over the years. In some ways, the market has simplified. In the 1920s, at least 25 flavors of chewing gum were available. Today, only mint-flavored gums dominate sales. These minimal changes have made later entry very difficult. In fact, Beech-Nut (now part of Nabisco) was the last major chewing gum company to enter, way back in 1911. Although chewing gum has changed relatively little, Wrigley maintains a serious R&D effort to improve its products and packaging.


nderwood was the leading typewriter brand in 1923. Over the next three decades, Underwood was profitable. But instead of innovating, Underwood sought to collude with its competitors. According to a 1939 federal antitrust indictment, the four largest typewriter manufacturers, who together set prices and cornered 90 percent of the market, met to coordinate activities as early as 1930. One year after the indictment, Underwood and the other three manufacturers agreed to a consent degree that prohibited their monopolistic practices.
During World War II, many companies developed technology that would be useful after the war. But not Underwood. The company’s profitability from 1945 to 1955 was due to pent-up, post-war demand for typewriters, a growing economy, and sales from the Korean War effort. During this period, Underwood continued to pay high dividends rather than invest more in product development and manufacturing. While other companies invested heavily in computer technology, Underwood acquired only tiny Electronic Computer Corporation of Brooklyn in 1952.

In 1956, several factors exposed Underwood’s weaknesses. Lower-priced foreign competitors’ share of manual typewriters began a five-year increase from 15 percent to 40 percent. Outdated manufacturing facilities became too costly, and electric typewriters became more competitive, eventually surpassing sales of manual typewriters in the early 1960s. These conditions led to increasingly large losses and failed efforts at new strategic directions. Underwood spent $12 million to diversify into computers, but gave up after 18 months, lacking the necessary technical expertise.

After a few more unprofitable years, Underwood was acquired by Olivetti. While Olivetti’s U.S. subsidiary returned to profitability from the mid-1960s until 1970, it lost money throughout the 1970s and early 1980s. The Underwood name was phased out, and today, Olivetti is only a very small part of a relatively unimportant category.

Underwood’s lack of innovation stands in stark contrast with IBM. IBM bought Electromatic Typewriter in 1933 and introduced the first successful electric typewriter in 1935. In 1941, IBM introduced proportional letter spacing. In 1961, Big Blue introduced the Selectric typewriter with the “golf-ball” typing element. In 1964, the company introduced an automatic typewriter that stored information on magnetic tape. These advances and others enabled IBM to dominate electric typewriters through the late 1970s.

More important than succeeding in typewriters, IBM leveraged its strong position to become the dominant firm in computers. During World War II, IBM developed the Mark I computing calculator. The company sold its first computer to the government research facility at Los Alamos, New Mexico in 1953 and soon afterwards captured market leadership. IBM’s leadership in important segments of the computer industry continues today.

Underwood’s demise demonstrates the importance of continuous innovation. At least up until the mid-1930s, Underwood was well positioned to be the dominant firm in office automation. Its revenues were about equal to IBM’s in 1937. But by 1957, IBM’s revenues were about 15 times those of Underwood!

 

More information can be found here.

Peter Golder is associate professor of marketing at Stern. This article is adapted from research was published in the May 2000 issue of Journal of Marketing Research.