NYU Stern School of Business

Undergraduate College

C22.0003.001: REGRESS/FORCASTING MODEL

Spring 2011

Instructor Details

Wurl, Robin

rwurl@stern.nyu.edu

212 998 0814

TBA

KMC 9-156

 

SANCHEZ ARROYO, JAVIER

javier.sanchezarroyo@stern.nyu.edu

TBA

TBA

 

Course Meetings

MW, 3:30pm to 4:45pm

Tisch T-UC24

 

Course Description and Learning Goals

Objective:The objective of this course is to introduce students to the basic statistical techniques which are widely used in business and other fields. In particular a considerable attention will be devoted to the technique of regression analysis, which is a useful and powerful technique for modeling the relationships between variables of interest.

 

Course Pre-Requisites

Students taking C22.0003 will be required to have mastered the material in C22.0001.

 

Course Outline

Tentative Course Outline

 

Class Number

Date

Topics

Textbook Sections

HW due Dates

Coverage for HW

1

Monday
24-JAN-10

Syllabus; Sampling; Central limit theorem;

4.11

 

1

2

Wednesday
26-JAN-10

Confidence Intervals on Mean, z- & t-statistics;

5.1, 5.2, 5.3

 

1

3

Monday
31-JAN-10

Test of Hypothesis; Test on Mean, z- & t-statistics; p-values;

6.1, 6.2, 6.3, 6.4, 6.5

1

2

4

Wednesday
2-FEB-10

Intro to Regression Modeling; Least Squares; Coefficients of correlation and determination r & r2;

10.1, 10.2, 10.5

 

2

5

Monday
7-FEB-10

Model Assumptions; Estimating σ2; Inferences about β1; Estimation and Prediction

10.3, 10.4, 10.5, 10.6

2

3

6

Wednesday
9-FEB-10

Residual Analysis - variance stabilizing transformation.

11.11

 

3

7

Monday
14-FEB-10

Multiple Regression
 Review for Midterm

11.1, 11.2, 11.3, 11.4

3

4

8

Wednesday
16-FEB-10

MIDTERM:
Material from classes 1-6  

 

 

 

9

Monday
21-FEB-10

President’s Day - No Class

 

 

 

9

Wednesday
23-FEB-10

Interactions; Higher order models

11.5, 11.6

 

4

10

Monday
28-FEB-10

Qualitative Variable Models

11.7

4

5

11

Wednesday
2-MAR-10

Models with both Qualitative and Quantitative Variables

11.8

 

5

12

Monday
7-MAR-10

Variable Selection

11.10

5

6

13

Wednesday
9-MAR-10

Multicollinearity;

11.12

 

6

14

Monday
14-MAR-10

Review for Final;

 

6

 

15

Wednesday
16-MAR-10

FINAL:
Cumulative

 

 

 

 

Required Course Materials

Text: Statistics for Business and Economics, 2nd Custom Edition for New York University, by McClave, Benson, and Sincich (MBS), Prentice Hall

OR

Statistics for Business and Economics, 11th edition, by McClave, Benson, and Sincich (MBS), Prentice Hall.

 

Computer Package: MINITAB, Student Edition.  Minitab will be used to perform statistical analysis. The Stern computer lab on the 1st floor of Tisch has the full version of Minitab 16.

The Student Minitab version caps the maximum number of data records to 10,000, but, for all of our work the Student Minitab will be sufficient.

The text and Minitab are available at the university bookstore, bundled as a single item.

All relevant data files from MBS are available in the Stern Computer Labs, on the CD that comes with the textbook bundle, and for download at http://www.stern.nyu.edu/~gsimon/statdata

The documents “A Quick Introduction to Minitab” and “Guide to Minitab Regression” will be distributed in class and posted for download on Blackboard.

A short course introduction to Minitab will be offered at the beginning of the semester.  Time and dates are TBD.

Purchase Options:

(1)   Buy the bundle at the university bookstore.

(2)   Acquire McClave, Benson, Sincich text on secondary market.  You can get either the full 11th edition or the New York University customized edition.  You will then need to acquire Minitab (for this course you will need Minitab version 14 or higher.)

Student version Minitab adds about $10 to cost of the bundle, so it’s a genuine bargain.  The comparable full version Minitab sells at an academic price of $115. 

Full version of Minitab 16:

There are several ways to get Minitab 16

1.     Purchase the full version from the computer store at an academic price of $115.

2.     Rent the full version program for $30 for six months or for $50 for twelve months from www.e-academy.com/minitab.

3.     Use the full version program for no charge through the Stern CITRIX system.

CITRIX is found at http://apps.stern.nyu.edu.  CITRIX permits you to run an online version of MINITAB 16 (as well as other software).  Connection difficulties are not uncommon; Stern’s Information Technology group (helpdesk@stern.nyu.edu) can help if you have connection difficulties.  I found that Firefox is the least troublesome browser to use when accessing Minitab via CITRIX.

You can save your work to your local computer by selecting in the save dialog “My Computer” then “C$ on ‘Client’ (V:)”.

Excel also has a number of statistical functions.  I recommend that you avoid this program for statistical applications.  While Excel’s statistical work is generally correct, there are a number of annoying errors, and the program lacks the flexibility of a full-featured statistics package.

Course work will involve instances of simple calculations (+, -, x, ÷, memory, and square root), and for these a hand-held calculator is helpful but not necessary or required.  

 

Assessment Components

Grades will be based on a combination of scores from homework and in-class examinations.  The specific numerical computation is

(0.20) Homework + (0.35) Midterm + (0.45) Final Exam (cumulative)

 

Grading

At NYU Stern we seek to teach challenging courses that allow students to demonstrate their mastery of the subject matter.  In general, students in undergraduate core courses can expect a grading distribution where: 

Note that while the School uses these ranges as a guide, the actual distribution for this course and your own grade will depend upon how well you actually perform in this course.

 

Re-Grading

The process of assigning grades is intended to be one of unbiased evaluation. Students are encouraged to respect the integrity and authority of the professor’s grading system and are discouraged from pursuing arbitrary challenges to it.

If you believe an inadvertent error has been made in the grading of an individual assignment or in assessing an overall course grade, a request to have the grade re-evaluated may be submitted. You must submit such requests in writing to me within 7 days of receiving the grade, including a brief written statement of why you believe that an error in grading has been made.

 

Professional Responsibilities For This Course

Attendance

Attending class, arriving to class on time and staying to the end of the class period are essential to your success in this course and affect your grade.  Absences may be excused only in the case of serious illness, grave family emergencies, religious observance, or civic obligation and must be documented.  If you will miss a class for religious observance or civic obligation, you must notify me no later than the first week of class.  Job interviews and incompatible travel plans are considered unexcused absences.

Participation

In-class contribution is a significant part of your grade and an important part of our shared learning experience. Your active participation helps me to evaluate your overall performance.
You can excel in this area if you come to class on time and contribute to the course by:

Assignments and Make-up Policy

No make-up exams will be given and late assignments will not be accepted unless you had a documented serious illness or family emergency. Exceptions to this policy for reasons of religious observance or civic obligation will only be made available when the assignment cannot reasonably be completed prior to the due date and you make arrangements for late submission in advance.

Classroom Norms

Laptops, cell phones, Smart-phones and other electronic devices must be turned off prior to the start of class. 

Exception:  Laptops may be used for in-class hands-on assignments.

 

Stern Policies

Collaboration on Graded Assignments
Students may choose to work together in groups of two on homework assignments.  Each group will hand in ONE assignment with both names on the document. 

 

Course Evaluations
Course evaluations are important to us and to students who come after you.  Please complete them thoughtfully.

 

Academic Integrity

Integrity is critical to the learning process and to all that we do here at NYU Stern. As members of our community, all students agree to abide by the NYU Stern Student Code of Conduct, which includes a commitment to:

The entire Stern Student Code of Conduct applies to all students enrolled in Stern courses and can be found here:

Undergraduate College: http://www.stern.nyu.edu/uc/codeofconduct
Graduate Programs: http://w4.stern.nyu.edu/studentactivities/involved.cfm?doc_id=102505

To help ensure the integrity of our learning community, prose assignments you submit to Blackboard will be submitted to Turnitin.  Turnitin will compare your submission to a database of prior submissions to Turnitin, current and archived Web pages, periodicals, journals, and publications.  Additionally, your document will become part of the Turnitin database.

 

Recording of Classes

Your class may be recorded for educational purposes

 

Students with Disabilities

If you have a qualified disability and will require academic accommodation of any kind during this course, you must notify me at the beginning of the course and provide a letter from the Moses Center for Students with Disabilities (CSD, 998-4980, www.nyu.edu/csd) verifying your registration and outlining the accommodations they recommend.  If you will need to take an exam at the CSD, you must submit a completed Exam Accommodations Form to them at least one week prior to the scheduled exam time to be guaranteed accommodation.

 

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