NYU Stern School of Business

Undergraduate College

C22.0103.003: STATS F/BUS CNTL REGRESS & FORECASTING MODELS

Spring 2011

Instructor Details

Ehud Menipaz

emenipaz@stern.nyu.edu

212 998 0822

Tuesday and Thursday, 11 AM -12:30 PM

KMC 8-60


Course material (this syllabus, homework assignments, data files, etc.) and announcements will be posted on the course “blackboard” website.

 

Course Meetings

MTR, 3:30pm to 4:45pm

KMC 3-90


Final Exam:

Schedule exceptions
    Class will not meet on:
    Class will meet on:

 

Course Description and Learning Goals

The course “Statistics for Business Control and Regression Analysis” (C22.0103.004) is designed to achieve an understanding of fundamental notions of data presentation and analysis and to use statistical and probabilistic thinking in the context of business problems. The course deals with modern methods of data exploration, the uses and abuses of the basic techniques of inference, and the use of regression as a tool for management and for financial analysis.

 

Course Pre-Requisites

V63.0121

It is presumed that the students are reasonably familiar with routine algebra, exponents, and the slope and intercept of a straight line. These concepts will be used freely in the course.

 

Course Outline

 

Topic

MBS chapters

1

Statistics and statistical thinking, types of data, data display, summary statistics

1,2

2

Probability, conditional probability, probability distributions, random variables

3,4,5

3

Sampling, point estimation, confidence intervals, hypothesis testing

6,7,8,9

4

Simple linear regression, multiple linear regression

12,13

 

Required Course Materials

Text

The course textbook is Statistics for Business and Economics  New York Univ. Second Customized  11th Edition , by McClave, Benson & Sincich (MBS).  It can be bought along with a solution manual and a software CD in the Professional Bookstore on Laguardia Place.  Do not confuse MBS with another book having a similar title, written by two of the above authors.

You are not required to buy this text, as the course classes, handouts, posted lecture notes and homework assignments cover all the material for which you will be held responsible.  Some of the problems will be taken from the text, and you will also have to use its tables.  Many students find the text a helpful supplementary reading.

Software and Calculators

Statistical computing will be done with the program Minitab 16 for Windows. This program runs on the Stern network, and individual copies can be purchased from the Professional Bookstore.

Minitab can also be “rented” from the Web site www.e-academy.com for about $30 for five months, or about $50 for twelve months.  The program will be downloaded to your computer, and will later expire.

A hand-held calculator is useful for simple calculations needed for the homework and exams.  There is no need to have a “scientific” or “financial” calculator – a standard calculator with basic features such as square root, memory, and exponents should suffice.

 

Assessment Components

Assignments

Weekly homework assignments will be drawn from the text, as well as from other sources.  All data files required for the assignments will be available from the course website.

The two lowest-scoring (or missing) homework assignments will not be used for calculating the final grade.  Late submissions will not be accepted, without exceptions.

Exams

There will be two midterms in the course, on February 16 and on March 30; each midterm will cover about a third of the course’s material.  Midterms will be held in class time, and will be 70 minutes long. 

Final exam is 2 hours, and will cover the entire course material.

All exams are with open books and notes – you are welcome to bring anything you like, except for laptops.

Grading Information

Grades will be based on a combination of scores for homework and exams. The exact computing form is

         Final grade = 0.20 (Midterm I) + 0.20 (Midterm II) + 0.45 (Final exam) + 0.15 (Homework)

 

Group Projects

Guidelines for Group Projects

Business activities involve group effort. Consequently, learning how to work effectively in a group is a critical part of your business education.

Every member is expected to carry an equal share of the group’s workload. As such, it is in your interest to be involved in all aspects of the project. Even if you divide the work rather than work on each piece together, you are still responsible for each part. The group project will be graded as a whole:   its different components will not be graded separately. Your exams may contain questions that are based on aspects of your group projects.

It is recommended that each group establish ground rules early in the process to facilitate your joint work including a problem-solving process for handling conflicts. In the infrequent case where you believe that a group member is not carrying out his or her fair share of work, you are urged not to permit problems to develop to a point where they become serious. If you cannot resolve conflicts internally after your best efforts, they should be brought to my attention and I will work with you to find a resolution.

You will be asked to complete a peer evaluation form to evaluate the contribution of each of your group members (including your own contribution) at the conclusion of each project. If there is consensus that a group member did not contribute a fair share of work to the project, I will consider this feedback during grading.

 

Grading

At NYU Stern we seek to teach challenging courses that allow students to demonstrate their mastery of the subject matter.  In general, students in undergraduate core courses can expect a grading distribution where: 

Note that while the School uses these ranges as a guide, the actual distribution for this course and your own grade will depend upon how well you actually perform in this course.

 

Re-Grading

The process of assigning grades is intended to be one of unbiased evaluation. Students are encouraged to respect the integrity and authority of the professor’s grading system and are discouraged from pursuing arbitrary challenges to it.

If you believe an inadvertent error has been made in the grading of an individual assignment or in assessing an overall course grade, a request to have the grade re-evaluated may be submitted. You must submit such requests in writing to me within 7 days of receiving the grade, including a brief written statement of why you believe that an error in grading has been made.

 

Professional Responsibilities For This Course

Attendance

 

Participation

In-class contribution is a significant part of your grade and an important part of our shared learning experience. Your active participation helps me to evaluate your overall performance.
You can excel in this area if you come to class on time and contribute to the course by:

 

Assignments

 

Classroom Norms

 

Stern Policies

General Behavior
The School expects that students will conduct themselves with respect and professionalism toward faculty, students, and others present in class and will follow the rules laid down by the instructor for classroom behavior.  Students who fail to do so may be asked to leave the classroom. 

 

Collaboration on Graded Assignments
Students may not work together on graded assignment unless the instructor gives express permission. 

 

Course Evaluations
Course evaluations are important to us and to students who come after you.  Please complete them thoughtfully.

 

Academic Integrity

Integrity is critical to the learning process and to all that we do here at NYU Stern. As members of our community, all students agree to abide by the NYU Stern Student Code of Conduct, which includes a commitment to:

The entire Stern Student Code of Conduct applies to all students enrolled in Stern courses and can be found here:

Undergraduate College: http://www.stern.nyu.edu/uc/codeofconduct
Graduate Programs: http://w4.stern.nyu.edu/studentactivities/involved.cfm?doc_id=102505

To help ensure the integrity of our learning community, prose assignments you submit to Blackboard will be submitted to Turnitin.  Turnitin will compare your submission to a database of prior submissions to Turnitin, current and archived Web pages, periodicals, journals, and publications.  Additionally, your document will become part of the Turnitin database.

 

Recording of Classes

Your class may be recorded for educational purposes

 

Students with Disabilities

If you have a qualified disability and will require academic accommodation of any kind during this course, you must notify me at the beginning of the course and provide a letter from the Moses Center for Students with Disabilities (CSD, 998-4980, www.nyu.edu/csd) verifying your registration and outlining the accommodations they recommend.  If you will need to take an exam at the CSD, you must submit a completed Exam Accommodations Form to them at least one week prior to the scheduled exam time to be guaranteed accommodation.

 

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