NYU Stern School of Business

Undergraduate College

STAT-UB.0103.004 (C22.0103): STATS F/BUS CNTL REGRESS & FORECASTING MODELS

Spring 2013

Instructor Details

Melnick, Edward

emelnick@stern.nyu.edu

(212)998-0444

TRF 11-12

KMC 8-56

 

Ryan Lloyd

prl252@stern.nyu.edu

TBA

TBA

 

Course Meetings

TRF, 9:30am to 10:45am

KMC 3-90


Final Exam: May 16, 2013 3:30pm-4:45pm

Schedule exceptions
    Class will not meet on:
    Class will meet on:

 

Course Description and Learning Goals

The analytical approach to problem solving is a process that is based on a mathematical model.

The purpose of the course is to train students to:

     1. formulate analytical problems,

     2. apply statistical techniques for analyzing data, and

     3. interpret ouput from statistical analyses.

     All concepts introduced in the course will be illustrated by addressing fundamental questions that will be inroduced in your core courses at Stern. A side benefit of the course is that it will also serve as a primer to the undergraduate Stern curriculum. The course stresses applications wih the focus being the analysis of data to formulate business decisions. Technical aspects underlying the methods will be presented intuitively with the goal of making students critical readers of quantitative arguments that appear in research reports.

 

Course Pre-Requisites

V63.0121

 

Course Outline

Topics                                                                                                                                      Reading Assignments

1. Data collection and Analysis                                                                                            MBS: Chapters 1 and 2

2. Introduction to Probability                                                                                                  MBS: Chapter 3

3. Probability Distributions                                                                                                    MBS: Chapter 4

      Hypergeometric

      Binomial

      Poisson

      Normal

4. Multrivariate Normal Distribution: Portfolio Theory                                                      Document 16 in Course Documents Folder; Chapter 2: Section 9

5. Statistical Interference                                                                                                       MBS: Chapters 5, 6, and 7

6. Linear Regression and Correlation Analysis

      Simple Linear Regression                                                                                              Document 24 in Course Documents Folder; MBS: Chapter 10

      Multiple Linear Regression                                                                                             MBS: Chapter 11

7. Forecasting                                                                                                                          Notes distributed in class

8. Final Examination

 

Required Course Materials

The course material consists of these three items:

The text is Statistics for Business and Economics, 11th edition, by McClave, Benson, and Sincich (second custom Edition for New York University).  The publisher is Prentice-Hall.

Student’s Solutions Manual, by Nancy Boudreau.  This has worked-through solutions to the odd-numbered problems.

Minitab,student edition, which is a computer program for statistical analysis.

These are available at the university bookstore, which have been bundled as a single item.

A bounded set of notes will be distributed in class.

The text is required, and it may be available on the secondary book market.  If you search the secondary book market, please be aware that these authors have another book with a very similar title.

The Student’s Solutions Manual is not required, but you might find it useful. 

The “regular” Minitab is in release 16, and the student version is based on release 15. 

The student version should not be thought of as inferior to the “regular” version.  The only material difference is that the student version is limited to five worksheets and 5,000 cells per worksheet.

The program Minitab and all the course data files will be available in the Stern computer labs.  All course data files will be available from the Stern Web site.

The spreadsheet program Excel has a number of statistical functions.  We recommend that you avoid this program for statistical applications.  While Excel’s statistical work is generally correct, there are a number of annoying errors, and the program lacks the flexibility of a full-feature statistics package.

There will be many instances of simple calculations for which a hand-held calculator will be helpful. Minimum calculator features that you will need are memory and square roots. 

This course will not use calculus to any appreciable degree, though it certainly exploits algebra manipulations.  These manipulations will be frequent and will occasionally be messy.

 

Assessment Components

TBA

 

Group Projects

   

 

Grading

Problem assignments will be given each week and will be submitted the following week for review. ALL assignments must be completed.

The final grade is computed as follows:

Category                                                         Percentage

Assignments and Participation                        10%

Mid-term Examination                                      40%

Final Examination                                             50%

Homework:

The assignments must be completed and handed in on time. Late homework will not be collected. Students are expected to come to class prepared having read text and assigned readings prior to class. It is suggested that students keep a copy of their homework to study from (in case it is not returned before an exam).

  Late Assignments and Make-up Policy:

At the discretion of the professor, late assignments will either not be accepted or will incur a grade penalty unless due to documented serious illness or family emergency.  Professors will make exceptions for religious observance or civic obligation only when the assignment cannot reasonably be completed prior to the due date and the student makes arrangements for late submission with the professor in advance.

 

Professional Responsibilities For This Course

Attendance

 

Participation

In-class contribution is a significant part of your grade and an important part of our shared learning experience. Your active participation helps me to evaluate your overall performance.
You can excel in this area if you come to class on time and contribute to the course by:

 

Assignments

 

Classroom Norms

 

Stern Policies

General Behavior
The School expects that students will conduct themselves with respect and professionalism toward faculty, students, and others present in class and will follow the rules laid down by the instructor for classroom behavior.  Students who fail to do so may be asked to leave the classroom. 

 

Collaboration on Graded Assignments
Students may not work together on graded assignment unless the instructor gives express permission. 

 

Course Evaluations
Course evaluations are important to us and to students who come after you.  Please complete them thoughtfully.

 

Academic Integrity

Integrity is critical to the learning process and to all that we do here at NYU Stern. As members of our community, all students agree to abide by the NYU Stern Student Code of Conduct, which includes a commitment to:

The entire Stern Student Code of Conduct applies to all students enrolled in Stern courses and can be found here:

Undergraduate College: http://www.stern.nyu.edu/uc/codeofconduct
Graduate Programs: http://w4.stern.nyu.edu/studentactivities/involved.cfm?doc_id=102505

To help ensure the integrity of our learning community, prose assignments you submit to Blackboard will be submitted to Turnitin.  Turnitin will compare your submission to a database of prior submissions to Turnitin, current and archived Web pages, periodicals, journals, and publications.  Additionally, your document will become part of the Turnitin database.

 

Recording of Classes

Your class may be recorded for educational purposes

 

Students with Disabilities

If you have a qualified disability and will require academic accommodation of any kind during this course, you must notify me at the beginning of the course and provide a letter from the Moses Center for Students with Disabilities (CSD, 998-4980, www.nyu.edu/csd) verifying your registration and outlining the accommodations they recommend.  If you will need to take an exam at the CSD, you must submit a completed Exam Accommodations Form to them at least one week prior to the scheduled exam time to be guaranteed accommodation.

 

Tentative Schedule of Topics

 

Topic #

Topic Description

Chapter

Topic 1

Introduction to Statistics

Chapters 1 and 2

Topic 2

Introduction to Probability

Chapter 3

Topic 3

Probability Distributions

Chapters 4 and 5

Topic 4

Linear Combinations of Normal Random Variables (Portfolio Theory)

Section 9 in Chapter 2

Topic 5

Sampling Distributions and the Central Limit Theorem

Chapter 4

Topic 6

Simple Linear Regression

Chapter 10

Topic 7

Forecasting

Notes

 

Tentative Calendar

 

Date

Topic Covered

Assignment

01/29/13

Introduction

Chapters 1 and 2

01/31/13

1

                           

02/01/13

1

 

02/05/13

1

 

02/07/13

1

 

02/08/13

2

Chapter 3

02/12/13

2

 

02/14/13

2

 

02/15/13

2

 

02/19/13

3

Chapter 4

02/21/13

3

 

02/22/13

3

 

02/26/13

3

 

02/28/13

3

 

03/01/13

 3

 

03/05/13

4

Chapter 5

03/07/13

4

 

03/08/13

4

 

03/12/13

4

 

03/14/13

Review

 

03/15/13

Mid-Term Exam

 

03/19/13

No Class

 

03/21/13

No Class

 

03/22/13

No Class

 

03/26/13

5

Chapters 6 and 7

03/28/13

5

 

03/29/13

5

 

04/02/13

5

 

04/04/13

5

 

04/05/13

5

 

04/09/13

6

Chapter 10 and 11

04/11/13

6

 

04/12/13

6

 

04/16/13

6

 

04/18/13

6

 

04/19/13

6

 

04/23/13

6

 

04/25/13

6

 

04/26/13

6

 

04/30/13

6

 

05/02/13

6

 

05/03/13

6

 

05/07/13

7

Handout

05/09/13

7

Handout

05/10/13

Review

 

05/14/13

No Class

 

05/16/13

Final Examination

Time: 3:30pm-4:45pm

 

Re-Grading

The process of assigning grades is intended to be one of unbiased evaluation. Students are encouraged to respect the integrity and authority of the professor’s grading system and are discouraged from pursuing arbitrary challenges to it.

If you believe an inadvertent error has been made in the grading of an individual assignment or in assessing an overall course grade, a request to have the grade re-evaluated may be submitted. You must submit such requests in writing to me within 7 days of receiving the grade, including a brief written statement of why you believe that an error in grading has been made.

 

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