NYU Stern School of Business

Undergraduate College

STAT-UB.0103.001 (C22.0103): STATS F/BUS CNTL REGRESS & FORECASTING MODELS

Spring 2013

Instructor Details

Giloni, Avi

agiloni@stern.nyu.edu

(212) 998 - 0825

Monday, Tues, Thurs 9:30am-10:30am

KMC 8-171F

 

Course Meetings

MTR, 8:00am to 9:15am

Tisch T-200


Final Exam:

Schedule exceptions
    Class will not meet on:
    Class will meet on:

 

Course Description and Learning Goals

The basic objective of this course is to provide the business student with a strong fundamental understanding of statistics and its applications. Students will learn statistical applications utilizing real world examples and exercises from various fields. This course will survey the topics of descriptive statistics, inferential statistics, linear regression and their applications. 

 

Course Pre-Requisites

V63.0121

 

Course Outline

The course will cover chapters 1 through 11 of the textbook.

The important topics are these:

Overview of statistics (chapter 1)

Graphical descriptions such as stem-and-leaf displays, histograms, and bivariate plots;  mean, median, mode, standard deviation (chapter 2)

Basic concepts of probability (chapter 3)

Discrete probability laws, especially binomial and Poisson (chapter 4)

Continuous probability laws, especially normal (chapter 5)

Sampling distributions, with particular attention to the sampling distribution of the sample average, the Central Limit theorem (chapter 6)

The confidence interval methodology for a single sample (chapter 7)

The hypothesis testing paradigm for a single sample (chapter 8)

The two-sample problem, confidence intervals and hypothesis tests (chapter 9)

Simple (one-predictor) linear regression, including the model assumptions, estimation, hypothesis tests, predictions, and prediction intervals (chapter 12)

Multiple regression, including the model assumptions, estimation, hypothesis tests, predictions, prediction intervals, variable selection, model building, residual analysis, and the checking of assumptions (chapter 13)

 

Required Course Materials

The course material consists of these three items:

The text is Statistics for Business and Economics, 10th edition, by McClave, Benson, and Sincich.  The publisher is Prentice-Hall.

Student’s Solutions Manual, by Nancy Boudreau.  This has worked-through solutions to the odd-numbered problems.

Minitab,student edition, which is a computer program for statistical analysis.

These are available at the university bookstore.  They have been bundled as a single item in the past, and we believe that they will be similarly bundled for Fall 2010.

The text is required, and it may be available on the secondary book market.  If you search the secondary book market, please be aware that these authors have another book with a very similar title.

The Student’s Solutions Manual is not required, but you are likely to find it useful. 

Minitab adds about $   to the cost of the bundle, so it’s a genuine bargain.  The comparable program sells at an academic price of about $   , and there is a “rental” form from e‚ÄĎacademy.com which can be obtained for about $26 for five months.

The “regular” Minitab is in release 15, and the student version is based on this release.  Release 15 has many improved features, especially the graphics.  Please do not try to use earlier releases of Minitab.

The student version should not be thought of as inferior to the “regular” version.  The only material difference is that the student version is limited to five worksheets and 5,000 cells per worksheet.

The program Minitab and all the course data files will be available in the Stern computer labs.  All course data files will be available from the Stern Web site.

The spreadsheet program Excel has a number of statistical functions.  We recommend that you avoid this program for statistical applications.  While Excel’s statistical work is generally correct, there are a number of annoying errors, and the program lacks the flexibility of a full-feature statistics package.

There will be many instances of simple calculations for which a hand-held calculator will be helpful.  Calculator features that you will need are memory and square roots.  It is not necessary (or even helpful) to have a calculator with statistical functions such as standard deviation or regression.

This course will not use calculus to any appreciable degree, though it certainly exploits algebra manipulations.  These manipulations will be frequent and will occasionally be messy.

 

Assessment Components

TBA

 

Group Projects

There will be a project, which counts for 10% of the grade. In the project, you will analyze a data set of your choice, using methods you have learned in the course. The project is a group project. Groups must be at least two students and no more than four students. The project will be broken down into short modules, spread over the entire semester. For each module, the group should submit just one report, with all names on it. Modules handed in late will not be accepted. When each module is handed in, the previous modules should be attached, but these will not be re-graded. More details on the project are available on the Blackboard course site.

 

Grading

We will have homework, two midterms, a final exam, and a project. Your grade will be based on these, as well as class participation.

 

Midterm 1                   25%

Midterm 2                   25%

Homework                  10%

Project                         10%

Final                            30%

Homework:

 

Homework counts for 10% of your grade. The assignments must be completed and handed in on time. Late homework will not be collected. Students are expected to come to class prepared having read text and assigned readings prior to class. It is suggested that students keep a copy of their homework to study from (in case it is not returned before an exam).

  Late Assignments and Make-up Policy:

 

At the discretion of the professor, late assignments will either not be accepted or will incur a grade penalty unless due to documented serious illness or family emergency.  Professors will make exceptions for religious observance or civic obligation only when the assignment cannot reasonably be completed prior to the due date and the student makes arrangements for late submission with the professor in advance.

 

Professional Responsibilities For This Course

Attendance

 

Participation

In-class contribution is a significant part of your grade and an important part of our shared learning experience. Your active participation helps me to evaluate your overall performance.
You can excel in this area if you come to class on time and contribute to the course by:

 

Assignments

 

Classroom Norms

 

Stern Policies

General Behavior
The School expects that students will conduct themselves with respect and professionalism toward faculty, students, and others present in class and will follow the rules laid down by the instructor for classroom behavior.  Students who fail to do so may be asked to leave the classroom. 

 

Collaboration on Graded Assignments
Students may not work together on graded assignment unless the instructor gives express permission. 

 

Course Evaluations
Course evaluations are important to us and to students who come after you.  Please complete them thoughtfully.

 

Academic Integrity

Integrity is critical to the learning process and to all that we do here at NYU Stern. As members of our community, all students agree to abide by the NYU Stern Student Code of Conduct, which includes a commitment to:

The entire Stern Student Code of Conduct applies to all students enrolled in Stern courses and can be found here:

Undergraduate College: http://www.stern.nyu.edu/uc/codeofconduct
Graduate Programs: http://w4.stern.nyu.edu/studentactivities/involved.cfm?doc_id=102505

To help ensure the integrity of our learning community, prose assignments you submit to Blackboard will be submitted to Turnitin.  Turnitin will compare your submission to a database of prior submissions to Turnitin, current and archived Web pages, periodicals, journals, and publications.  Additionally, your document will become part of the Turnitin database.

 

Recording of Classes

Your class may be recorded for educational purposes

 

Students with Disabilities

If you have a qualified disability and will require academic accommodation of any kind during this course, you must notify me at the beginning of the course and provide a letter from the Moses Center for Students with Disabilities (CSD, 998-4980, www.nyu.edu/csd) verifying your registration and outlining the accommodations they recommend.  If you will need to take an exam at the CSD, you must submit a completed Exam Accommodations Form to them at least one week prior to the scheduled exam time to be guaranteed accommodation.

 

Tentative Schedule of Topics

 

Topic #

Topic Description

Chapter

Topic 1

Introduction to Statistics, Types of Data, Collecting Data, Populations and Samples

Chapter 1, Handout 1

Topic 2

Tables, Charts and Graphs for Categorical and Numerical Data, Measures of Central Tendency, Variation and Shape

Chapter 2, Handout 1

Topic 3

Introduction to Probability

Chapter 3, Handout 2

Topic 4

Discrete Probability Distributions

Chapter 4, Handout 3

Topic 5

Continuous Probability Distributions

Chapter 4, Handout 4

Topic 6

Sampling Distributions and the Central Limit Theorem

Chapter 4,   Handout 4

Topic 7

Confidence Intervals and Sample Size Determination

Chapter 5, Handout 5

Topic 8

Hypothesis Tests

Chapter 6, Handout 6

Topic 9

Simple Linear Regression

Chapter 10, Handout 7

Topic 10

Multiple Regression

Chapter 11, Handout 8

Topic 11

Inferences based on Two Samples

Chapter 7, Handout 6

 

Tentative Calendar

 

Date

Topic Covered

Assignment

01/28/13

1

Read Chapter 1 and Handout 1

01/29/13

1,2

                           

01/31/13

2

Read Chapter 2

02/04/13

2

Submit Hmwk 1

02/05/13

2,3

 

02/07/13

3

Read Chapter 3 and Handout 2

02/11/13

3

Submit Hmwk 2

02/12/13

3,4

 

02/14/13

4

Read Chapter 4 and Handout 3

02/18/13

No Class

 

02/19/13

4

Submit Hmwk 3

02/21/13

4

 

02/25/13

4,5

 

02/26/13

5

Submit Hmwk 4

02/28/13

 Midterm 1 (Topics 1-4, 5)

 

03/04/13

5

 

03/05/13

5

Submit Module 1

03/07/12

6

 

03/11/12

6

Submit Hmwk 5

03/12/12

6

 

03/14/12

7

Read Chapter 5 and Handout 5

03/18/12

No Class

 

03/19/12

No Class

 

03/21/12

No Class

 

03/25/12

7

Submit Hmwk 6

03/26/12

7

 

03/28/12

8

Read Chapter 6 and Handout 6

04/01/12

8

Submit Hmwk 7

04/02/12

8

 

04/04/12

8

 

04/08/12

9

Submit Hmwk 8

04/09/12

9

Read Chapter 10 and Handout 7

04/11/12

Midterm 2 ( Topics 5 - 8)

 

04/15/12

9

 

04/16/12

9

 

04/18/12

9

Submit Module 2

04/22/12

9

 

04/23/12

9

 

04/25/12

9

 

04/29/12

10

Read Chapter 11 and Handout 8

04/30/12

10

Submit Hmwk 9

05/02/12

10

 

05/06/12

10

 

05/07/12

10

 

05/09/12

10,11

Read Chapter 7

05/13/13

11

Submit Hmwk 10 and Module 3

05/14/13

Review

 

TBD

Final Exam (Cumulative, but focused on topics 9 – 11)

 

 

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