EVERY MARKET CYCLE, GOOD OR BAD, eventually anoints a resident genius. You probably remember Abby Joseph Cohen, Goldman Sachs' upbeat investment strategist, who alone seemed to understand why stocks kept rising in the 1990s. You might even recall fund manager Henry Van der Eb, who became the Einstein of the hour in 1987 after he steered his Mathers Fund unscathed through the Black Monday crash. In a confusing market, it seems, we need to believe someone has it all figured out.

In these anxious times, the man who seems to have figured it out first and best is New York University economist Nouriel Roubini. While his peers were still wishfully predicting a soft landing in early 2007, Roubini was warning of a real estate collapse, a serious credit crisis and a savage recession. As his forecasts came true one by one, he has turned into a kind of bear market celebrity: He has spoken before world leaders at Davos and sat down with the CEOs of major financial firms for personal war councils. The mid-March rallies in the stock market haven't softened Roubini's position. He believes that home prices have another 20% to fall, that mortgage losses could hit $1 trillion and that the cycle won't end without a huge federal intervention. The words "not since the Great Depression" come up a lot in his conversation. "I wish I was wrong," he says, in a hard-to-place accent that reflects his Iranian heritage and Italian upbringing. "We've never seen this kind of credit crisis before, and it's very dangerous." It's enough to make you cast aside a lifelong investment plan and retreat to Treasury bills.

Before you do that, though, remember this about market cycle geniuses: They always miss the next turn. Cohen remained upbeat long after the 1990s party was over, and Van der Eb never stopped being bearish after his good call in 1987 He ended up sitting out the ensuing 13-year bull market.

It's possible, of course, that Roubini is an exception. But the lesson of history is pretty clear. The time to act on his forecast was 15 months ago when he stood alone-not now, when his once renegade outlook seems a lot less outlandish. Especially since Roubini himself hasn't bought or sold a thing in response to his own forecast: He has all of his money in a diversified portfolio of index funds. "That's how I've invested for the past 20 years and how I'll invest for the next 20," he says. "I take a long-term view."

Amen. We all should be so good about sticking to our investment guns. For more on that score, I suggest you catch "Making Sense of a Mad Market" on page 80, in which editor-at-large Michael Sivy outlines the case for staying the course in painstaking historical detail. Or turn to "What to Do Now" on page 88, in which MONEY writers and editors organized a brain trust of investment greats to urge you to do the right thing. Hang in there.

On a different note, I'm proud to introduce MONEY's first annual Best List, a compilation of 100 brilliant and timely financial moves. To assemble it, we asked every MONEY contributor to nominate the person or strategy or investment choice or purchase that, in his or her area of specialty, seemed most suited for that superlative right now. Lots of magazines have "best" lists, of course. But ours, I think, will be the one that goes furthest in helping you make money or protect it or spend it wisely or-in any number of ways-lead a richer life. I hope you enjoy it.

The time to act on Roubini's forecast was 15 months ago when he stood alone, not now, when his once renegade outlook seems less outlandish. Especially since he himself still has all his money-100%-in stocks.